화학공학소재연구정보센터
Process Safety and Environmental Protection, Vol.81, No.B5, 295-302, 2003
Scenarios and metrics as guides to a sustainable future - The case of energy supply
World energy demand is expected to increase to several times its current level over the next 50 years. Much of this energy will come from fossil fuel, a finite resource, which moreover generates carbon dioxide, a cause of global warming. The incentive to develop other, renewable forms of energy is therefore strong, but how can we be sure that our expectations for the future form a rational basis for determining energy policy? The scenario planning technique does not attempt to predict the future, but offers a variety of visions against which current actions and policies can be tested. To guide the move towards a more sustainable future it is also important to be able to monitor our progress. The use of sustainability metrics, tailored to a particular purpose, and relating to resource efficiency, environmental protection, economic benefits and social development, is a way of quantifying this progress. The set of indicators illustrates the 'sustainability footprint' of an enterprise.