Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries, Vol.25, No.3, 467-477, 2012
Prediction of occupational accident statistics and work time loss distributions using Bayesian analysis
This paper uses Bayesian analysis tools for the stochastic evaluation of work time losses due to occupational accidents in a workplace. Models are developed for accident frequencies, duration of recovery from an accident, and the worker unavailability. The unavailability statistics are hereby derived considering a two state stochastic model, to provide estimates for the expected work time losses over a base period of workplace operation. The above models are applied on real multiyear accident data collected from the Greek Petrochemical Industry. (c) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.