The origin of the strain-free crystallites that nucleate the recrystallization process has been debated for decades. Realistic, three-dimensional computer simulations indicate that the nucleation event is the mobility-driven abnormal growth of certain subgrains. Based on these observations, we derive a model that incorporates subgrain topology, texture, boundary distribution and boundary properties to predict the frequency of the abnormal growth events that lead to nucleation. The qualitative and quantitative agreement between theory, simulation, and experiments is excellent.