Studies on the evolution projection of installed energy capacity are often based on projections from mathematical models. These models should be considered when studying the influence of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth on the increase in the installed capacity of energy. In this sense, the present study is aimed at evaluating and demonstrating, through the proposition of the correlation equations, the growth projection between the evolution curves of the installed capacity of Small Hydropower (SHP) in Brazil, based on the decreasing growth rate, and based on the GDP Any adjustments were made using the saturation power (P(s)) as a base scenario, for installed capacities of 12000 MW, 18000 MW and 22000 MW. The study obtained good correlation coefficients for the equations and the variables that were studied. It was also possible to conclude that the correlation found in this study will lead to a slight increase in values of the saturation time, over those saturation times obtained in the calculation based on capacity development based on the GDP. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.