Energy, Vol.109, 998-1015, 2016
Meta-analysis of energy scenario studies: Example of electricity scenarios for Switzerland
We present a meta-analysis of long-term energy-system scenario studies. The meta-analysis comprises a qualitative taxonomy of modeling approaches and a quantitative decomposition of scenario results across heterogenous studies. The analysis is exemplified by technology-detailed scenario studies of the Swiss electricity system. In the decomposition approach, we assess the variability across scenario results by a principal component analysis, which provides a low-dimensional approximation of multidimensional data. Additionally, by means of a distance measure, the extremality of a scenario result is evaluated, and a minimal set of representative scenarios is determined with respect to a considered scenario result. The proposed methods contribute to the analysis of commonality of modeling approaches and of multidimensional results across heterogenous scenario studies. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords:Meta-analysis;Principal component analysis;Energy system models;Distance measure;Swiss electricity system