As manufacturers face the challenges of increasing global competition and energy saving requirements, it is imperative to seek out opportunities to reduce energy waste and overall cost. In this paper, a novel data-driven stochastic manufacturing system modeling method is proposed to identify and predict energy saving opportunities and their impact on production. A real-time distributed feedback production control policy, which integrates the current and predicted system performance, is established to improve the overall profit and energy efficiency. A case study is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed control policy. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.