Downstream is historically a problematic sector of Russian petroleum industry, suffering from many issues: low efficiency, import dependence and inferior products quality. In an effort to combat these problems, a large-scale modernization and renovation program has been initiated in 2011 resulting in over 35 billion US$ investments up to date, yet still many challenges remain. Russian government identifies development of hydrocarbon refining as one of the priorities of the country's strategic development, and as such has included several goals as a part of the Energy Strategy of Russia up to 2035 project to serve as guidelines for the industry. In our research we have explored the implications and adequacy of these goals. Using the developed modeling tool, we composed a long term forecast of petroleum products output and investment up to 2035. The calculation show, that a full-scale renovation of the sector to meet the advanced global standards would require over 90 billion US$ of additional investment. The goals set by the Energy Strategy project were found to be lacking in several key areas. We propose adjusting the goals to include additional target indicators and put extra emphasis on the cooperation between government and companies, both domestic and international.