A method is demonstrated for prediction of ceramic reliability limited by fracture in reactive environments. The simplicity of the method relies on the ceramic displaying ideal indentation-strength behavior and on the applied loading leading to short-term power-law crack velocity behavior. Reactive failure strength measurements, treating flaw size as a variable and failure time as a constraint in a pass-fail test, enable reliability, including both intrinsic and contact flaws, to be predicted. Little to no computation is required.