A novel numerical simulation method based on finite element analysis (FEA), which can evaluate the fracture probability caused by the characteristics of flaw distribution, is considered an effective tool to facilitate and increase the use of ceramics in components and members. In this study, we propose an FEA methodology to predict the scatter of ceramic strength. Specifically, the data on the microstructure distribution (i.e., relative density, size and aspect ratio of pore, and grain size) are taken as the input values and reflected onto the parameters of a continuum damage model via a fracture mechanical model based on the circumferential circular crack emanating from an oval spherical pore. In addition, we numerically create a Weibull distribution based on multiple FEA results of a three-point bending test. Its validity is confirmed by a quantitative comparison with the actual test results. The results suggest that the proposed FEA methodology can be applied to the analysis of the fracture probability of ceramics.