Computers & Chemical Engineering, Vol.128, 450-467, 2019
Profitability, risk, and investment in conceptual plant design: Optimizing key financial parameters rigorously using NPV%
Recent fundamental work with discounted cash flow methods shows that an alternative metric for evaluating profitability and risk, one different from Internal Rate of Return (IRR) -namely the annualized and non-dimensionalized Net Present Value (NPV%)-can make evaluating project profitability easier yet more informative. It provides a simple and transparent strategy to optimize a design's key financial dependent variables (capital investment, profitability, risk). 1 Both traditional and exo-parametric modeling methods developed by the author are linked to this metric, providing an efficient and precise mechanism to organize and carry out the financial/optimization search procedures in process design. Design engineers want to know what is the optimum size of investment (TI) that meets projected market conditions? What is the expected long-term (NPV) return? What metric can be used to maximize them, consistent with the need to recover capital as quickly as reasonably possible (i.e., to bound the "short-term risk")? The proposed approach answers all three questions simultaneously, with a precise min-max solution obtained transparently. (C) 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.