Recently, many studies have reported the ultralow friction coefficient of sliding friction between rigid solid surfaces in aqueous lubrication. A running-in process that goes through high-friction and friction-decreasing regions to a stable ultralow friction region is often required. However, the role of the friction-decreasing region is often ascribed to tribofilm formation in which complexity hindered the quantitative description of the running-in process and the prediction of its subsequent lubrication state. In this work, the frictional energy (E-f) dissipated in the running-in process of a poly(oligo(ethylene glycol) methyl ether acrylate) aqueous lubrication was related to the wear of solid surfaces under different conditions and lubrication states. Experimental results indicated that the high-friction region was in a boundary lubrication state, contributed to most of the wear, and significantly reduced the contact pressure, whereas the friction-decreasing region was in a mixed lubrication state, contributed only to the slight and slow removal of materials, and slightly reduced the contact pressure. Therefore, by establishing relationships among the wear scar diameter, E-f, and the Stribeck curve of the tribological system, the subsequent lubrication state after a running-in process under various working loads and sliding speeds could be quantitatively predicted. The running-in experiments with different aqueous lubrication systems showed good agreement with the prediction of this method. This investigation provides an effective method for the wear and lubrication state prediction after a running-in process, further proving the importance of the Stribeck curve for a lubrication system. This study may also have important implications for the strategy design of the running-in process in various industrial applications.