Nature, Vol.367, No.6458, 33-40, 1994
Impacts on the Earth by Asteroids and Comets - Assessing the Hazard
There is a 1-in-10,000 chance that a large (approximately 2-km diameter) asteroid or comet will collide with the Earth during the next century, disrupting the ecosphere and killing a large fraction of the world’s population. Although impacts of this magnitude are so infrequent as to be beyond our personal experience, the long-term statistical hazard is comparable to that of many other, more familiar natural disasters, raising the question of whether mitigation measures should be considered.