In this paper, a shot-line model that describes the process of air-defence warhead explosion and the fragment dispersion was developed, in which natural fragment warheads, controlled fragment warheads, performed fragment warheads, multi-P-charge warheads. fragment focusing warheads and continuous rod warheads were included. The shot-line model is applied to both static and real dynamic conditions. The air drag and the fragment tumbling that influences the impact velocity and the ballistic deviation of the fragment and the penetration prediction in the terminal effectiveness analysis were considered.