- Previous Article
- Next Article
- Table of Contents
Bulletin of Canadian Petroleum Geology, Vol.42, No.3, 392-403, 1994
A METHODOLOGY FOR HANDLING EXPLORATION RISK AND CONSTRUCTING SUPPLY CURVES FOR OIL AND GAS PLAYS WHEN RESOURCES ARE STACKED
The use of project economics to estimate full-cycle supply prices for undiscovered oil and gas resources is a straightforward exercise for those regions where oil and gas plays are not vertically superimposed on one another, that is, they are not stacked. Exploration risk is incorporated into such an analysis by using a simple two-outcome decision tree model to include the costs of dry and abandoned wells. The decision tree model can be expanded to include multiple targets or discoveries, but this expansion requires additional drilling statistics and resource assessment data. This paper suggests a methodology to include exploration risk in the preparation of supply curves when stacked resources are expected and little or no information on uphole resources is available. In this method, all exploration costs for wells drilled to targets in the play being evaluated are assigned to that play, rather than prorated among the multiple targets or discoveries. Undiscovered pools are assumed to either bear all exploration costs (full-cycle discoveries) or no exploration costs (half-cycle discoveries). The weighted full- and half-cycle supply price is shown to be a more realistic estimate of the supply price of undiscovered pools in a play when stacked resources exist. The statistics required for this methodology are minimal, and resource estimates for prospects in other zones are not required. The equation relating the average pool finding cost to the discovery record is applicable to different scenarios regarding the presence of shallower and deeper resources. The equation derived for the two-outcome decision-tree model is shown to be a special case of the general expression.