Bulletin of Canadian Petroleum Geology, Vol.47, No.1, 19-30, 1999
Comparison of discovery process methods for estimating undiscovered resources
The merits of several discovery process methods for petroleum resource assessment are evaluated using discoveries from the Niagaran (Silurian) pinnacle reef play of northern Michigan as a benchmark data set for comparing methods. The tested methods include: the USGS log-geometric method, the GSC PETRIMES methods including the lognormal (LDSCV); nonparametric (NDSCV)-empirical; nonparametric-lognormal; nonparametric-Pareto; and lognormal or non-parametric-Poisson (BDSCV) methods; Arps and Roberts; Bickel, Nair and Wang's nonparametric finite population; Kaufman's anchored; and Chen and Sinding-Larsen's gee-anchored methods. The estimated number of fields varied by a factor of 3.7 (973 to 3,568), but the estimated volume of resources varied by a factor of 1.6 (1,145 to 1,855 MM BOE). The estimates are similar for the large field-size classes greater than 2 - 4 MM BOE. The main differences among the estimates are in the small fields less than 2 - 4 MM BOE. Future developments in resource assessment methodology should attempt to identify a specific probability distribution from the empirical distribution derived by nonparametric methods. Emphasis should also be placed on the development of numerical solutions in nonparametric finite population analysis.