Energy Conversion and Management, Vol.45, No.18-19, 2867-2878, 2004
Effect of length of measurement period on accuracy of predicted annual heating energy consumption of buildings
This study examined the temperature dependent regression models of energy consumption as a function of the length of the measurement period. The methodology applied was to construct linear regression models of daily energy consumption from 1 day to 3 months data sets and compare the annual heating energy consumption predicted by these models with actual annual heating energy consumption. A commercial building in Daejon was selected, and the energy consumption was measured over a heating season. The results from the investigation show that the predicted energy consumption based on 1 day of measurements to build the regression model could lead to errors of 100% or more. The prediction error decreased to 30% when 1 week of data was used to build the regression model. Likewise, the regression model based on 3 months of measured data predicted the annual energy consumption within 6% of the measured energy consumption. These analyses show that the length of the measurement period has a significant impact on the accuracy of the predicted annual energy consumption of buildings. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords:heating energy consumption;regression analysis;heating energy prediction;measurement period;daily average outdoor temperature