The world lead market will experience minor deficits in 2003 and 2004. These deficits alone are unlikely to reduce visible stocks of lead to the critically low levels necessary to provoke substantially higher prices. The world lead market is, however, undergoing structural change. Lead smelting has expanded rapidly in China and, in part due to a similar trend in zinc, is shifting away from the imperial smelting process (ISP). As a result, the production of refined lead in Western Europe is falling dramatically in 2003. Consumption patterns are also shifting. Consumption in the USA has been in decline since the collapse of the industrial battery sector in 2001, and there is growing evidence of a shift in battery manufacturing to China. Despite the generally neutral outlook for London Metal Exchange (LME) lead prices, these structural changes are causing disruption to the trade flows of lead, which is now impacting premiums and may impact LME prices. These issues are highly relevant to battery manufacturers. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.