To have a clear insight into the diamond nucleation upon the hydrothermal synthesis and the reduction of carbide (HSRC), we performed the thermodynamic approach on the nanoscale to elucidate the diamond nucleation taking place in HSRC supercritical-fluid systems taking into account the capillary effect of the nanosized curvature of the diamond critical nuclei, based on the carbon thermodynamic equilibrium phase diagram. These theoretical analyses showed that the nanosize-induced interior pressure of diamond nuclei could drive the metastable phase region of the diamond nucleation in HSRC into the new stable phase region of diamond in the carbon phase diagram. Accordingly, the diamond nucleation is preferable to the graphite phase formation in the competing growth between diamond and graphite upon HSRC. Meanwhile, we predicted that 400 MPa should be the threshold pressure for the diamond synthesis by HSRC in the metastable phase region of diamond, based on the proposed thermodynamic nucleation on the nanoscale.