Stem cell self-renewal versus differentiation fate decisions are difficult to characterize and analyze due to multiple competing rate processes occurring simultaneously among heterogeneous cell subpopulations. To address this challenge, we describe a mathematical model for cell population dynamics that allows flow cytometry measurement of population distributions of molecular markers to be deconvoluted in terms of subpopulation-specific rate parameters distinguishing commitment to differentiation, proliferation of differentiated cells, and proliferation of undifferentiated cells (i.e., self-renewal). We validate this model-based parameter determination by means of dedicated, independent cell-tracking studies. Our approach facilitates interpretation of relationships underlying effects of external cues on cell responses in differentiating cultures via intracellular signals. (C) 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.