The cement industry is the third largest carbon emitting industrial sector in the EU. This article presents the foreseeable technological evolution of the cement industry under business as usual circumstances, and examines the effects on the sector of carbon trading. For those purposes a global dynamic simulation model of the cement industry (CEMSIM) has been developed. The model is composed of a series of interconnected modules on cement consumption and production, international trade and capacity planning. This study quantifies the benefits achieved from emission trading in different markets (EU 15, EU27 and Annex B), derived both from the revenues of emission trading, and from the lower compliance costs. The magnitude of the potential carbon leakage effect is also assessed. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.