A simple algorithm has been adopted for estimating the long term performance of a photovoltaic water pumping system without battery storage. The method uses the standard solar utilizability correlation equation to calculate the flow rate of the system, knowing an insolation threshold value. The method uses the monthly average solar radiation as the only input. The nonlinear relation between flow rate and solar insolation has been obtained experimentally in a first step and then used for performance prediction. The meteorological data collected instantaneously at the site of the pumping system has been used to obtain the monthly average values for solar radiation that are needed by the method. The method has been validated by predicting the performance of two PV pumping systems. The average output of the systems predicted by the method has been compared with experimental measurements. The estimated discharge differs by about 5% from the experimental measurements. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.