This survey analyses the need as well as the attractiveness of private investment in natural gas thermal power generation under the Brazilian new power sector reform. Providing a scenario analysis from 2004 to 2014, this paper focuses on the investor perspective, and concludes that investments in natural gas thermal power plants in Brazil are not feasible, without financial subsidies stimulating investors. The more wary of risk both government and society are, and the more averse to risk the investor is, the higher the probability of higher capacity payment to provide incentives to investors. The alternative would be a lower capacity payment combined with higher thermal power tariffs; meaning that generators would receive much more payment when operating, despite assuming higher risks. Additionally, the improvement in safety supply cost is estimated and a sensibility analysis on the actual variables is performed. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.