This paper assesses different strategies for the expansion of Brazil's oil refining segment, using criteria that range from energy security (reducing imports and vulnerability for key products) through to maximizing the profitability of this sector (boosting the output of higher value oil products) and adding value to Brazil's oil production (reducing exports of heavy acid oil). The development prospects are analyzed for conventional fuel production technology routes, sketching out three possible refining schemes for Brazilian oil and a GTL plant for producing gasoil from natural gas. Market scenario simulations indicate that investments will be required in Brazil's oil refining segment over and above those allocated to planned modifications in its current facilities, reducing the nation's vulnerability in terms of gasoil and petrochemical naphtha imports. Although not economically attractive, oil refining is a key activity that is crucial to oil company strategies. The decision to invest in this segment depends on local infrastructure conditions, environmental constraints and fuel specifications, in addition to oil company strategies, steady growth in demand and the definition of a government policy that eases institutional risks. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.