In the European project, EPIQR deterioration of building materials and components is described by the use of a classification system with four classes for the qualitative condition of, e.g., a facade or window. The prediction of the probable period of passing into the next (worse) deterioration state is of high interest as this is directly connected to higher refurbishment costs. MEDIC, which stands for "Methode d＇Evaluation de scenarios de Degradation probables d＇Investissements Correspondants" is a proposal for a new method to predict the future degradation state of the building. It calculates for each element regarded in EPIQR the probability to pass from one class to another during time. The prediction is based on the combination of the a priori probability based on experience from a large number of previous investigations/refurbishments and the current state of the object under study. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science S.A. All rights reserved.