A new methodology is presented with which the likely impact of accident in one process unit of an industry on other process units can be forecast and assessed. The methodology is based on Monte Carlo Simulation and overcomes the limitations of analytical methods, used hitherto, which were inherently limited in their ability to handle the uncertainty and the complexity associated with domino effect phenomena. The methodology has been validated and its applicability has been demonstrated with two case studies. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.