Small-scale experiments to investigate the self-sustaining decomposition (SSD) behaviour of NPK 16.16.16 fertilizer have been undertaken. These experiments show that this material will undergo self-sustaining decomposition and are used to give insight into the behaviour of the reaction. A three-step decomposition process is observed leading to a self-sustained reaction reaching temperatures of 200-350 degrees C. The measured heat of reaction is 0.73-1.8 MJ/kg. Measurements are applied to the events that occurred aboard the ship Ostedijk in 2007 in which a SSD reaction occurred. The mass loss rate from the cargo was calculated to range from 0.5 kg/s on the first day to 12 kg/s on the last day. From this measurement, the maximum fire size was estimated to be in the range 5.8-29 MW. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.