The estimation of CO2 emissions reduction potential in China is an important issue for China's energy policy. In this paper, data envelopment analysis (DEA) is used to evaluate the carbon emission performance of 29 Chinese provincial administrative regions (Tibet and Taiwan are not included since of data lack) by computing potential carbon emission reductions for energy conservation technology (ECT) and energy structural adjustment (ESA). The results reveal that ECT promotion and reductions in inter-regional technological disparity would be effective in reducing carbon emissions in technically inefficient regions. However, most of the provincial administrative regions investigated have an irrational energy structure and exhibit an overdependence on coal consumption, so ESA is required to reduce carbon emissions. Therefore, enormous emission reductions could be achieved by promoting ECT, developing renewable energy, increasing the proportion of non-fossil energy, delivering low-carbon energy and applying ESA. Based on the estimation, some policy implications and suitable suggestions are proposed for policy makers. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.