On 19 May 2010, the European Union adopted a Directive stipulating that by the end of 2020, Member States must ensure that all newly constructed buildings consume 'nearly zero' energy. In Germany, drastic reductions of energy demand for space heating have already become a policy target over the last decade, both for new and existing dwellings. In this article, we evaluate the impact of past and future policies on the development of buildings with a very high energy performance (VHEP) and on their primary energy demand and emissions. These dwellings account for 4% of all dwellings which have been constructed since 2001 and 1% of the total building stock. We have defined different policy scenarios, all of which assume a gradual increase of requirements for new and existing buildings and a continuation of the support policies that stimulate both new constructions and ambitious refurbishments. In the most ambitious scenario, the proportion of VHEP dwellings will increase by up to 30% of the total stock in 2020 and the share of nearly zero and zero-energy dwellings will then make up 6%. This will lead to emission reductions of over 50% of the 1990 level and primary energy reductions of 25% compared with today. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.