| 초록 |
Underground pipelines installed in industrial complexes are corroding over time. If the old pipes are not repaired or replaced periodically, the risk of accidents will increase, which may result in physical or personal damage. Replacement cycles are determined by quantitative risk assessment methods or estimated based on corrosion rate data. In this study, we use the Markov model and the probabilistic model of corrosion rate to reflect the uncertainty factors involved in the replacement cycle estimation. We propose a methodology to estimate the pipe replacement cycle at optimal cost. A model that can determine the parameters of the probability model considering the pipe material, product, and soil acidity is applied to the corrosion rate of the pipe, and it is reflected in the Markov model to determine the optimum replacement cycle. For this purpose, a case study on piping in Ulsan industrial complex was conducted. |
